THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9
ALDS
Minnesota (0-1) at N.Y. Yankees (1-0)
A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04) makes his first career postseason start as he tries to guide the Yankees to a 2-0 lead in this best-of-5 series with the Twins, who will counter with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.07).
CC Sabathia put aside past playoff disappointments and pitched New York to a 7-2 victory in Game 1. The Yankees are now 8-0 against the Twins this season, including 5-0 in the Bronx. Furthermore, New York is 48-16 in the last 64 meetings overall and 26-5 in the last 31 clashes in the Bronx.
The Twins, who earned the A.L. Central title on Monday with a 6-5, 12-inning victory over Detroit in a one-game playoff, are still 17-5 in their last 22 games. They’re also on positive runs of 7-4 on the road, 21-6 against right-handed starters, 11-3 on the highway against righty starters, 29-11 after an off day, 36-15 on Friday and 5-1 in the second game of a series. On the downside, Ron Gardenhire’s squad is in playoff slumps of 5-16 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-10 in divisional games, 1-10 as an underdog.
The Yankees are on impressive runs of 42-17 overall, 42-13 in their new stadium, 38-14 against the A.L. Central and 41-17 versus teams with a winning record. However, Joe Girardi’s squad, which has made the postseason 14 of the last 15 years, has lost back-to-back divisional series, and despite Wednesday’s victory, New York is just 2-6 in its last eight playoff games, all as a favorite.
Blackburn was a key to Minnesota’s late-season surge, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last four starts, with the Twins winning all four games. Also, since Aug. 21, the right-hander has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of nine starts, posting a 2.28 ERA in four road outings during this stretch, three of which Minnesota won. For the season, Blackburn was 4-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 17 starts as a visitor.
Although the Twins came out on top in each of Blackburn’s last four regular-season starts, they’re just 8-20 in his last 28 road outings, 3-8 in his last 11 against A.L. East squads and 4-11 in his last 14 as a road pup. Blackburn has made four career starts against the Yankees, going 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA, including a 6-4 loss at Yankee stadium on May 16. This is the 27-year-old’s first career playoff start.
Like Blackburn, Burnett was strong down the stretch, giving up just seven runs (five earned) in his final four starts covering 24 innings (1.46 ERA), and he recorded 28 strikeouts versus 10 walks over this four-game stretch. With Burnett on the hill, the Yankees are on hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 13-5 as a favorite.
New York went 12-4 in the veteran right-hander’s 16 starts at New Yankee Stadium, with Burnett posting a 5-3 record and a 3.51 ERA. Against the Twins in his career, Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in six starts, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two games this year, as the Yanks won 3-2 at home and 4-3 on the road.
When Blackburn pitches, the under is on runs of 16-5-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a road underdog and 3-0-1 against the A.L. East, and with Burnett working, the under is on stretches of 3-1-1 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. Central, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-0 on Friday
Minnesota is on “over” streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 6-3-1 on the road, 4-0-1 against right-handed starts and 13-5-2 as a road underdog, but the under is 19-6-2 in its last 27 against the A.L. East and 11-2-1 in its last 14 after a defeat. For New York, the “under” is on runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 versus the A.L. Central.
Finally, the under is 28-11-4 in the last 44 Twins-Yankees battles in New York (3-1-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Boston (0-1) at L.A. Angels (1-0)
Looking to draw even in their best-of-5 ALDS with the Angels, the Red Sox send postseason specialist Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium in Anaheim opposite Los Angeles’ Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.63) in Game 2.
The Angels’ Torii Hunter belted a three-run, fifth-inning homer and ace John Lackey threw 7 1/3 innings of shutout baseball to lead Los Angeles to Thursday’s 5-0 opening-game victory.
This is the third straight year and the fourth time since 2004 that the Red Sox and Angels have faced off in an opening-round playoff series, and Boston has come out on top each time, winning nine of the previous 10 contests. Last year, the Red Sox won the best-of-5 series in four games, including winning the first two contests at Angel Stadium.
This year, the Angels won the season series from Boston 5-4, going 4-2 in Anaheim, and since the start of 2008, Los Angeles is 14-4 in regular-season play versus the Sox (7-2 at Angel Stadium).
The Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 4-1 overall, 9-5 as a favorite, 13-6 as a road favorite and 21-9 versus right-handed starters. Also, in postseason action, Terry Francona’s club remains on surges of 13-6 overall, 7-3 on the road, 6-2 in divisional contests (all against the Angels) and 6-3 in divisional road games (4-1 in Anaheim).
Los Angeles is 52-28 since July 10, including 8-1 in the last eight, and Mike Scioscia’s squad is 50-32 in Anaheim this season (5-1 in the last six). The Halos carry further positive trends of 23-6 as a home underdog and 49-21 after a victory. However, the Angels have still lost 10 of their last 12 playoff contests (nine of 11 to Boston) and six of seven home playoff games, and they’re 2-5 in their last seven as a playoff pup.
Beckett is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career playoff starts with three complete games and three shutouts. Last year he allowed four runs on nine hits over five innings of a 5-4 loss to the Angles in Boston in Game 3 of the ALDS, but the year before he faced the Halos in this round and threw a four-hit complete-game shutout, winning 4-0.
Beckett saw these Angels on Sept. 17 and allowed three runs over eight innings of a 4-3 loss in Boston, his last defeat of the regular season. In fact, Boston has actually lost Beckett’s last five starts to the Angels as the right-hander allowed three runs or more in each of the five. Beckett is just 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA in eight career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.
Beckett closed the season on Saturday at home against the Indians, allowing four runs over five innings of an 11-6 win. The Red Sox are on runs of 19-8 in Beckett’s last 27 starts and 10-1 when he gets five days off, but just 2-6 when he faces a team with a winning record.
Weaver is 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA at home this season, and the Angels snapped a three-game losing streak behind the right-hander on Friday when Weaver threw five shutout innings in Oakland, beating the A’s 5-2. The young right-hander looked good against Boston this season, giving up just two runs (one earned) in two starts that spanned 13 2/3 innings. For his career, he is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA in eight regular-season starts against the Red Sox.
Weaver faced Boston in the 2007 postseason and gave up two runs on four hits in five innings but the Angels lost at home 9-1. Los Angeles is on runs of 17-8 behind Weaver overall, 35-16 when Weaver starts at home and 5-1 when he works at home against teams with a winning record.
The Red Sox have topped the total in eight of Beckett’s last 10 starts overall, but stayed below the number in four of his last five outings against A.L. West opponents. As a team, Boston is on “over” streaks of 6-2 against right-handed starters, 5-2 on the road against right-handers, 5-3 overall and 5-2 on Fridays, however it has stayed below the number in six of eight road playoff games.
It’s been all “unders” for the Angels, including 24-7-1 overall, 15-5-1 against right-handed starters, 14-5-1 against teams with winning records, 6-2-2 in ALDS games and 5-0-1 with Weaver on the hill. Finally, the “over” is 4-1-1 in Weaver’s last six against Boston, but the “under” is 3-1-1 in his last five at home against the BoSox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Louisiana Tech (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Nevada (1-3 SU and ATS)
Louisiana Tech goes after its third straight win overall and its second consecutive Western Athletic Conference victory when it travels to Mackey Stadium in Reno to take on the Wolf Pack, who finally kickoff their WAC season.
After getting destroyed on the road at Auburn (37-13) and Navy (32-14), the Bulldogs came home and got healthy with dominating wins over Division I-AA Nicholls State (48-13 in a non-lined contest) and Hawaii 27-6 as a six-point favorite). In last Friday’s victory over Hawaii, Louisiana Tech piled up 449 total yards, including 352 on the ground (6.2 per carry) while holding the explosive Warriors to 301 yards, including minus-7 rushing yards.
Nevada opened the season with three straight blowout losses and non-covers to Notre Dame (35-0 on the road), Colorado State (35-20 on the road) and Missouri (31-21 at home), but the Wolf Pack did the pounding on Saturday, crushing instate rival UNLV 63-28. Nevada outgained the Rebels 773-346 (559-70 on the ground) and won by 35 points despite committing four turnovers and 15 penalties (for 169 yards). Mike Ball rushed for 184 yards and five TDs, while QB Colin Kaepernick finally had his breakout game with 208 passing yards and a touchdown, as well as 173 rushing yards.
The Wolf Pack have won four straight meetings in this series (3-1 ATS). However, after three straight double-digit romps, Nevada had to work hard for last year’s 35-31 victory at La-Tech, falling just short as a 4½-point road chalk. In the Bulldogs’ last trip to Reno, they got pummeled 49-10 as a seven-point road ‘dog, as they were outgained 641-228. The home team and the favorite are both 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference contests, but otherwise the Bulldogs are in ATS funks of 14-37-1 on the highway (1-8-1 last 10 as a visitor), 13-28 as an underdog, 16-36-1 as a road pup, 7-19 when catching more than 10 points, 3-10 as a road pup in WAC games, 4-9 in October and 1-4 against teams with a losing record.
Nevada has cashed in 22 of its last 31 at Mackay Stadium, including 20 of 27 as a home chalk, and it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 when laying more than 10 points and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite in conference games. However, the Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover.
The over is 5-2 in the Bulldogs’ last seven WAC contests, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 7-2 on the highway, 8-3 as a ‘dog and 7-1 as a road pup. Nevada carries “over” trends of 4-1 in WAC action, 4-1 as a favorite, 5-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these schools (3-1 in the last four at Nevada).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA and OVER
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